The combination of trends in greenhouse gases and those in atmospheric pollutants translate to changes in concentrations affecting the overall development of radiative forcing. As shown in Fig. 10, the RCPs, as specified in the original selection criteria, cover the trends and level of radiative forcing values of scenarios in the literature very well. The most dominant factor, by far, is the forcing from COdos. As a result, both for the RCPs and in the overall literature, 2100 radiative forcing levels are correlated with cumulative 21st century CO2 emissions (see middle panel of Fig. 10). Thus, it is not surprising that the RCPs are consistent with the literature, both in terms of total forcing and cumulative CO2 emissions (over the course of the century).

Trends in radiative forcing (left), cumulative 21st century CO2 emissions vs 2100 radiative forcing (middle) and 2100 forcing level per category (right). Loe edasi »